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Weather: Mostly dry, but tides rise to highest levels in 8 months this weekend
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Weather: Mostly dry, but tides rise to highest levels in 8 months this weekend

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Climate change

Areas like the Black Horse Pike, in Egg Harbor Township, leading into Atlantic City are often closed because of extreme high tide flooding as seen in October 2018. A Department of Environmental Protection report on climate change predicts this type of flooding will increase.

Let’s talk about the coastal flooding situation for the weekend first. Minor stage tidal flooding is likely Saturday and Monday with the midday and early afternoon high tides, respectively.

The National Weather Service breaks down tide levels into multiple sections: normal, near flood, minor, moderate and major.

Minor flood stage rarely brings property damage but does leave water on roads and in yards.

Minor Flood Stage Ocean City

An example of what minor stage coastal flooding does to the central part of Ocean City. The areas shaded in lighter blue mean water is on normally dry ground.

Major roads, like the Black Horse Pike and White Horse Pike, will likely have one lane closed. The Dorset Avenue bridge in Ventnor may close for a period of time. You can find the coastal flooding on any street you’d like by watching this video here.

Sunday’s noon to 1 p.m. high tide will teeter on moderate flood stage, bringing water into unraised buildings near the bays. Blocks of road flooding will be expected. If a street has some water in it at a minor flood stage, a moderate stage will mean up to a foot of water will be likely.

For example, in Ocean City, most blocks between the bay and West Avenue have water on them at this level. You may not be able to travel the Black Horse and White Horse pikes between Atlantic City and the mainland near high tide. Similar road closures are possible across the area.

This coastal flooding will be caused by a sharp change in air pressure over a relatively small distance, a pressure gradient. This gradient will be due to high pressure in New England, with an approaching coastal storm to the south.

Ultimately, the storm will never fully make it our way, getting kicked farther out to sea by a ridge of high pressure aloft in the Deep South. However, east to northeast winds will blow in from hundreds of miles away, battering our shores.

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Winds will be sustained 15 to 25 mph both days, slightly higher Sunday than Saturday. Gusts will be in the 30s. If you’re having a yard sale this weekend, you’ll want to tie down the costume jewelry and picture frames.

In terms of rain, we’re still looking at drizzle at times Saturday but actual rain showers will be unlikely. Highs will be in the low 70s, right around average. With the damp feel, it’ll actually feel like summer.

Forecast Radar

The forecasted radar for parts of Saturday and Sunday, according to PivotalWeather. 

Rain showers will develop between 8 and 11 p.m. Saturday. You’ll want the umbrella heading out. if you’re staying in, you might want the air conditioner on if you’re sleeping. Temperatures will only be in the mid- to upper 60s for lows Sunday morning.

While September was quiet most days of the month, a storm named Ida would add its name to the record books for the most deadliest weather events in New Jersey's history. New Jersey State Climatologist Dr. Dave Robinson and Meteorologist Joe Martucci recap the day of extreme flooding and severe weather that was Ida, talk about another warm September and have some early thoughts on the upcoming winter. Ida - 2:32 September rainfall - 9:31 September temperatures - 13:49 Fall foliage - 22:22 Early winter thoughts - 24:06 NJ climate office update - 26:20 New episodes of the Something in the Air podcast come out the 1st and 3rd Wednesday of the month.

Hit-or-miss showers will be around for most of the day Sunday. The exact timing of the showers is hard to come by, given the scattered nature of them. However, I will say the following:

First, it will be more dry than not during the day. I’d say about 70% of your Sunday will be rain free. There will be a cloudy sky throughout the day, with that wind.

Second, after 5 p.m., I believe we will likely be dry, as the low pressure pivots out to sea.

Forecasted Rainfall

The forecasted rain through 11 p.m. Sunday. 

Despite the gloomy look to the sky, it will still be on the warmer side, staying just above 70.

Monday, we’ll begin to clear. So if you need a completely dry day for outdoor events, this will be the day for it. Highs will be in the 70s again.

Contact Joe Martucci:

609-272-7247

jmartucci@pressofac.com

Twitter @acpressmartucci

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