070518_nws_4thenterprise

On July 4th 2018, people were enjoying the beautiful weather and cooling off by the beach and bay in the Downbeach area. On the New Haven beach, beach goers are enjoying the hot sun, little breeze, and cool surf.

Early-morning showers should be the extent of the wet weather Sunday as the heat and humidity climb. Tropical air will be present for a mostly dry Monday. Then, we turn to Tuesday, when Hurricane Isaias likely will bring some impact to South Jersey.

A few showers will be present until 8 a.m. Sunday as a warm front passes through the region. Low temperatures will start in the 70s. On Friday, Atlantic City International Airport set the active record (15) for the longest streak of days with a low temperature of 70 degrees or greater. And Saturday morning only dropped into the low 70s, so the streak extends. Sen. Frank S. Farley State Marina in Atlantic City is in fourth place with 25 days, and that streak also will live on.

It was the second hottest July since records started at the airport in 1943. That also makes it the second hottest month of all time. The marina also sweltered through the fifth hottest month and the fourth hottest July since records started in the 1870s. While there was no extreme heat near 100 degrees, 16 of the 31 July days were above 90 at the airport. Of course, the low temperatures felt more like South Florida than South Jersey. The marina was warmer at night than Palm Beach and Big Cypress, Florida, among others, throughout the month.

Turning back toward the forecast, Sunday in South Jersey will feel awfully like Florida. Mainland highs will be in the low to mid-90s, feeling like the triple digits during the afternoon. Dew points will be sticky, in the low 70s. At the shore, we’ll get a bit of a sea breeze providing some relief in the mid- to upper 80s.

I’m hopeful that most of us will be dry after those early showers. Storms, potentially bringing damaging winds and even a weak tornado, will flare up, associated with a cold front. However, they should stay west of the New Jersey Turnpike.

Sunday evening will be very mild, sliding through the 80s. As the cold front approaches, a few showers and storms will pass through after midnight. These will end around 8 a.m. Most look dry, though, and given the nighttime timing, the severe weather should be limited. Monday morning lows will be in the mid- to upper 70s.

Monday looks to be a dry day as Iasias picks up speed as it moves onto or near the Southeast. This often happens in these setups, as dry air is “exhaled” by the tropical system. It will be mostly cloudy, but that will cap the heat into the mid- to upper 80s for highs.

Now, let’s turn to Iasias. If we need them, tropical storm watches would be up Sunday morning or midday, with a tropical storm warning Monday morning or midday. This would be the time to prepare. A reasonable worst- case scenario is six hours of tropical storm force conditions at the shore.

However, the rip current risk will be high Sunday and last through Wednesday. Seas will begin to build Sunday as well. Coastal flooding, already expected to be in spotty minor flood stage Sunday, likely will be on a widespread basis for one to three rounds between Monday night and Wednesday morning. Thankfully, we’re talking minor to perhaps moderate flood stage.

The rain will be the biggest impact from the storm. It should begin as early as the overnight hours Monday and last through Tuesday. Two to four inches of rain looks like a good bet, but the placement is highly dependent on the track of the storm.

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