Last Friday brought rain for a few hours in the morning, before afternoon thunderstorms moved in.
This Friday will be quite similar. Showers will be present during much of the morning, with a spotty thunderstorm during the afternoon.
Periods of rain will be present all throughout the morning. There will be dry time, but most outdoor work and plans will need to be moved. Heavy downpours will be around. Rainfall totals will be between 0.30 to 0.60 during the morning. Some spots will have areas of roadway flooding. If you see flooded roads, turn around.
Otherwise, temperatures will start in the low to mid-70s, extending our streak of nights at or above 70 degrees. As long as we stay above 70 degrees by midnight Friday, Atlantic City International Airport will have the longest streak of 70-degree or greater nights at 15. Sen. Frank. S. Farley Marina will reside in the fourth spot, with 25 days (record is 33).
Rain will taper between 9 and 11 a.m. There will still be an isolated shower around but many should be dry until 2 p.m. or so. Then, scattered showers and storms will flare back up. That will continue until around sunset.
A damaging gustS will be possible with these storms, in addition to more flooded roadways. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s with the cloudy and rainy day. That would snap our heat wave at five days.
A cold front will sink through the region overnight. You’ll notice a clearing sky and less muggy air. We’ll slide into the 80s and 70s during the evening. Come Saturday morning, we’ll be in the upper 60s on the mainland, with low 70s at the shore.
Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days. With the cold front furthest away from us, we should squeak out the day and stay dry. We’ll have a mostly- to partly-sunny sky, with the most sunshine in Little Egg Harbor Township and places north of the White Horse Pike.
We’ll be in the low to mid-80s. It’ll be perfect for a trip to the shore, pool or anywhere with water. Outdoor projects will be a go all day thanks to the lower heat. Again, history will repeat itself, as this will be the second Friday-Saturday combination in a row with highs below 90. No air conditioner? Maybe.
Dew points will rise on a dry Saturday night as a warm front lifts north through the region. Expect a few showers to fly around after midnight until around dawn Sunday. Between the showers and sticky air, it’ll be a mild night. Low to mid-70s will be expected, well above average for this time of the year.
Sunday will heat up quickly. We’ll get to the low 90s for mainland highs. The south wind will save the shore, with mid-80s there. That cold front will pass late Sunday. Expect showers and storms from the late afternoon, into the night. However, they’ll be few and far between, and you’ll have a mostly dry Sunday.
That will then take us to the beginning of the week, when Iasias becomes our concern. At this time, any impacts would be between Monday night and early Wednesday. Options range from rough seas, rip currents and some coastal flooding. While a landfalling storm is not likely, it’s just a technicality, a close brush by from a tropical storm can bring the same effects.
Here's the latest position and forecast track for Isaias
Isaias weakened Saturday from a hurricane to a tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings extend from roughly Palm Beach, Florida, to the start of the Outer Banks in North Carolina on Sunday afternoon. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Outer Banks.
Tropical storm watches will climb up the coast Sunday and may go up for South Jersey during the 5 p.m. National Hurricane Center update. All residents, especially along the coast, should make preparations here.
How do you say Isaías?
"Isaías" is the Spanish and Portuguese word for the biblical Isaiah. It is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.
New Jersey is in the forecast cone
Isaias joins Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall just south of Long Beach Island on July 10, as the two storms put the region in the forecast cone.
The cone represents a two-thirds probability of where the center of the low pressure center is.
The storm will slip through a weakness in a large high pressure system, which expands from the Gulf of Mexico into much of the Atlantic Ocean.
One it reaches Georgia, the steering patterns sharply moves west to east. While the storm won't curve immediately out to sea, there will be a turn to the northeast as it moves north, hence why New Jersey is in the forecast cone.
Forecast model guidance continues to narrow. A landfall will be possible, or can a pass two to three hundred miles out to sea.
There are three scenarios at play
There are three options at play. However, it will not be until Saturday when they can be narrowed down. If the storm makes landfall before reaching New Jersey, that will weaken the storm, and vice versa. The first two scenarios are favored, with the third one looking less and less likely.
Isaias stays 200 to 300 miles out to sea, passing between late Monday and Tuesday.
Spotty, but heavy, rain bands will pass. Winds would be gusty, but likely would not be enough to bring damage.
The real concerns would be out on the water. Given the full moon Monday and the onshore winds. Multiple rounds of minor or moderate coastal flooding would be likely. High seas would be present, with dangerous rip currents, too. During Tropical Storm Fay, a teenage lost his life in Ventnor while swimming with two friends the evening of the storm. In Ocean City, two 18-year-old girls were brought to shore by city police the following morning.
A heat wave that drives you to the shore, warm water temperature that draws you to the surf …
The storm hugs the Jersey Shore. While the western side of the storm is usually the safer side, since the winds around the counter-clockwise spinning system goes against the northerly direction of the storm's movement, worse impacts than option 1 are possible.
Flooding rain, damaging winds at the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding, dangerous rip currents and high seas will all be likely.
This being said, a track coast to the close would likely mean land interaction with North Carolina. If that happens, the storm would weaken. This could mean the difference between a strong tropical storm and weak, less organized one.
The Global Forecast System, American, model paints this picture. Though, note that the exact track of the storm should not be paid attention to. Rather, note how organized the storm is.
Isaias makes landfall in Florida or the Southeastern United States and the center of the storm passes to the west of the state. That is illustrated on the western edge of the forecast cone.
The storm would likely be a remnants storm by then, or perhaps a Tropical Depression. However, flooding rains, some coastal flooding, dangerous seas, rip currents and high surf would be likely.
Joe's 7-Day Forecast
When will we have a good idea on what the exact impacts will be?
By then, the storm will be near Florida. In the weakness of the large, Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic Ocean high pressure system, there will be a better idea on how the steering currents will move the storm.
Tropical Storm watches may go up Saturday night or Sunday morning, 48 hours before tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) winds arrive.
For more context on Isaías and the 2020 hurricane season
The Press of Atlantic City's Hurricane section of the Weather Center has the information you need to know to protect yourself and learn more about tropical systems in South Jersey.
Ten tropical storms and hurricanes have made landfall in South Jersey since 1900. Here's the list, newly updated with Tropical Storm Fay, which made landfall July 10.
An active 2020 hurricane season was predicted by Colorado State University. With Isaias, 2020 continues its record breaking pace to hurricane season, beating out the historic 2005 year.