A wind advisory is in effect for all of South Jersey and the Jersey Shore through 1 a.m. Tuesday. Wind gusts topped out at 59 mph in Beach Haven overnight. Wind gusts should be in the 40s much of the day, though sustained winds will be much lower. The risk for additional power outages and wind damage is there, so just stay cautious. Tuckerton still has road closures on Route 9 due to wind damage from earlier Monday. 

Furthermore, the coastal flooding played out almost exactly as forecasted. For South Jersey, minor flood stage was seen with the morning high tide. That's nuisance flooding. Winds were offshore during high tide leading to the lower tides.

However, a jog up the shore was a different story. Tide gauges in Mantoloking and Toms River hit moderate flood stage. Here, winds were parallel to the coast, not offshore. So, the water that piled in from the strong easterly winds overnight did not fully drain out, causing the issues.

2:30 a.m. - At this point, we're living through a rare January night in the region. 

Since 1986, there have been only 39 January severe thunderstorm warnings in NJ, according to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Three were Monday. In Ocean County, today had two of the eight total warnings in the past 36 years.

Wind gusts reached 59 mph in Beach Haven and 50 mph in Harvey Cedars. Tropical Storm force sustained winds, over 39 mph, were seen in Atlantic City. In Tuckerton, wires went down in Route 9 near Green Street, with all lanes closed. Power outages have been relatively limited in the Atlantic City Electric coverage area, only added up to roughly 1,500 customers at most. 

Hail is also falling from the sky. Usually reserved for the Spring or Summer, these balls of ice were reported in Lanoka Harbor (nickel sized). Given that most people are asleep and it's dark, it's likely that hail fell anywhere north of Forked River in the county.

Rotation has also been seen on radar. The National Weather Service wrote that tornadoes were "possible" in its severe thunderstorm warnings. However, no tornadoes have been confirmed.

1:55 a.m. - The severe thunderstorm warning has been dropped for those south of Forked River. However, it has been expanded up to the Raritan Bay and in effect through 2:30 a.m. 

Looking back at radar, there may have been rotation with a cell near Little Egg Harbor around 1:20 a.m. The National Weather Service will likely come out with more thoughts on it soon. 

Otherwise, the rain is over south of Route 40. Winds are weakening as the center of the low-pressure system moves through the Delmarva Peninsula and into South Jersey. Similar to the eye of a hurricane, another kind of low pressure system, winds are weaker near the center of it. 

Expect a cold southwest wind as early as 2:30 a.m. along the Delaware Bayshore. In Ocean County, it'll take until 4 a.m. or so. Southwest winds can be cold winds in very strong low-pressure systems. You can think of the low pressure as being so intense that it can wrap around air from the far northern part of the storm and bring it all the way to the south side. 

1:30 a.m. - We are live to talk about the severe thunderstorm warning issued for Ocean County.

1:05 a.m. - A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for most of Ocean County, except for towns like Jackson and Plumstead, through 2 a.m. 

There has been lightning with this storms, which has been forecasted as a key component to whether or not the area would see 70 mph gusts and winds mixed down from aloft, which are faster moving. 

Charge your devices in case of the power goes out and be on alert for falling tree limbs and power lines. 

12:45 a.m. - Winds are cranking.

The tropical storm force sustained wind probability did come true and will continue to do so through about 1:30 a.m. (Cape May County) to 3 a.m. (Ocean County).

The heavy winds are driven by a line of convective, air driven by the circulation of cold and warm temperatures, showers and thunderstorms. Lightning has been reported offshore with this.

If a thunderstorm comes onshore, wind gusts of 70 mph will be likely. That would threat to cause wind damage and power outages. 

These strong winds are coming from the east, which is piling water up in the bays and shoreline. Fortunately, it's low tide, so we can handle two or three feet of storm surge. However, if high tide was now, we'd be talking about moderate stage coastal flooding. We had that kind of flooding during the Jan. 3 nor'easter. 

On Saturday morning, this storm was in the Mid-South It brought snow to Wichita, Kansas. Snow will have moved into cities like Birmingham, Alabama, Nashville and Atlanta by the end of Saturday.

From there, it took a turn to the north around the jet stream, the river of air that separates two airmasses. However, an area of high pressure moving from New England out to sea will block the low-pressure system from taking its usual coastal storm track.

Rather than go off the Southeastern Coast and move toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will go off the coast and go due north. Therefore, it's an inland track, with the center of the low-pressure system going over Washington D.C. and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. This will mean winds will be southeast or east, rather than the colder, northeast direction, a pivotal part to the forecast. 

To a lesser extent, there will be issues with flooding from the rain and flooding from water piling in from the bays onto land. 

For The Press' coverage area, Ocean, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May counties, snow accumulation will not be a big deal. However, freezing rain will fall west of the Garden State Parkway for a period of time. 

Damaging winds and power outages will be possible Sunday night. Given that this will happen overnight, impacts may be exaggerate as many of us are asleep and not aware of what will be happening outside. 

As of 10:30 p.m. Sunday, wind gusts have generally topped out in the 30s inland and lower 40s at the shore. A 45 mph reading in Harvey Cedars has been the highest so far. Power outages have been few and far between. That's to be expected, as power issues and wind damage typically won't start until gusts top 45 mph. 

Aloft, a streak of howling winds around 70 to 80 mph will sit about 2,500 feet high. However, with an inversion, temperatures rising with height, that won't mix down unless something like a thunderstorm mixes it down. 

There are thunderstorms with this system. However, they have been offshore. As long as they stay there, we should be safe. 

Here's a look at the forecasted winds for the night and into Monday, which will also be breezy. 

Midnight Monday.: East sustained winds 25 mph inland, 40 mph at the shore (tropical storm force). Gusts likely hit the 50s at the shore, but the potential for higher gusts remain. 

Monday 5 a.m.: Southwest winds sustained 20 mph inland, 30 mph at the shore. Gusts will likely be in the 35-45 mph range. 

Monday 5 p.m.: West winds 20 mph inland, 25 mph at the shore. Gusts will likely be in the 30s. 

The Monday morning high tide will bring lane and road closures in the two to three hours surrounding sunrise. 

While coastal flooding did, thankfully, fall short of the forecast Sunday, there is, and was always, higher confidence on flooding with the Monday morning high tide. Whether it will be minor, nuisance, flooding, or moderate, more significant flooding is the big question.

On one hand, you will have a strong east wind piling water into the back bays Sunday night. Even though low tide will be around 1 a.m. Monday, the amount of water coming in will actually stall the tide from fully bottoming out.

It's also the full moon, which brings astronomically higher tides.

However, by 5 a.m., winds will offshore from Cape May to at least Brick. By the 6:30 a.m. to 8:30 a.m. high tide, onshore winds will no longer be at the Jersey. That's good news. If it was still onshore, you could expect a high tide than what we had on Jan. 3, which will solidly in moderate flood stage for most places. 

For Ocean through Cape May counties, expect minor stage coastal flooding for most spots. Winds should actually be offshore by this time, blowing some of that water out. Six to nine inches of saltwater on localized roadways will be likely.

Moderate stage coastal flooding is really only likely in Monmouth County and a few back bays south of there. Here, expect up to a foot of salt water flooding. 

It will be all rain for the rest of the night, ending between 2 and 5 a.m., first in Cape May and then working northward. Pockets of roadway, stream and creek flooding will be likely. 

Then, moisture will wrap around the low-pressure system. Coupled with cold air, you can expected snow showers after sunrise Monday morning, mixing with rain at times. However, with temperatures likely above freezing and the wet ground, less than 0.5 inches of accumulation will be likely. 

I expect 1 to 1.75 inches of precipitation to fall in total. 

Average highs are in the low to mid-40s, average lows are in the mid-20s inland, with around 30 readings at the shore. 

Expect the polar vortex to stretch from its usual resting spot near the North Pole to the Northeast during this time. While not every day will be below average, expect most day to be colder than average.

We then have to watch for next weekend. A storm system will go off the Southeastern Coast. From there, the range of possibilities varies from well out to sea, passing near Bermuda to a bonafied nor'easter. 

On Tuesday, come back to our website to see if the storm is on or off.