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Hurricane pass by more likely than usual for New Jersey in 2021 forecast
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Hurricane pass by more likely than usual for New Jersey in 2021 forecast

After a record breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, there is extra reason to review and examine the list of storm names for the 2021 season.

Colorado State University (CSU), a preeminent institution for hurricane forecasting, despite it's landlocked location, has forecasted for another above average season in 2021. 

Highlighting this above average season is a higher than typical risk for a landfall on the East Coast of the United States and a close call with a Jersey Shore storm.

According to the report, which was released on Apr. 8 and will be updated as Atlantic hurricane season nears, there is an 11% likelihood that a hurricane, with sustained winds over 74 mph, comes within 50 miles of New Jersey. The long-term average is 7%.

Zooming out to the whole East Coast, there is a 45% chance of a major hurricane, category 3, 4 or 5, landfall between Maine to Florida, much higher than the 31% probability of landfall. In 2020, the likelihood was also 45% and Hurricane Laura struck the Louisiana shore on Aug. 27.

The 2021 Atlantic season official begins on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30. However, storms tropical or subtropical in nature can be given a name, even before the start date. For six straight years, a storm has been named in May.

The forecast calls for 17 named storms, which start at the tropical storm category. Fay in July and Isaias in August were both tropical storms when they made landfall. Eight hurricanes are forecasted, with three achieving major hurricane status. The 1981 to 2010 average has been 12.1 named storms, with 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.

While CSU's forecast was released Apri. 8, the National Hurricane Center, the official, government, source for forecasts, will be released sometime in May. 

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